Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Forecast of damage to Philippine power sector

The forecast of the international weather watch community for selected parts of Asia is light to heavy rain. For Manila, Philippines and major cities like Cebu, Davao, other parts of the Southeast Asian country, varying forecasts of Tuesday-to-Friday (August 5-8) continuous rains and Wednesday-to-Friday (August 6-8).
PAGASA predicts gale force winds during the same periods mentioned above.

It is inevitable that this will impact once more upon power facilities. If countermeasures are still not being undertaken to buffer the effect of heavy rain and gale force winds brought about by Typhoon Halong (Philippine code Jose), the public may once again anticipate possible power outages in selected areas in the country.

While media reports that the typhoon has weakened over time, it must be noted that storms are invariably finicky and can regain strength at any time. On numerous occasions, typhoons that made landfall in the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) and exited after some time, gather greater momentum and returns for another landfall in the PAR.

As the forecasts go, there is more rain than powerful, destructive winds that indubitably are the cause of storm surges.

As earlier cautioned on July 13, 2014, necessary steps must be taken to forestall sustaining great but unnecessary damage to power facilities. Thus it is most strongly suggested that, despite the burden of cost, retirable and extremely depreciated installations need to be condemned and replaced. Retrofits and repairs have to be conducted, more so now than ever before.

More efficient and more effective monitoring systems have to be put in place to pinpoint at once all kinds of non-regular performance of components of the distribution system.

Needless to say, the downtime and the cost to the power supplier but most of all the public at large becomes too enormous to bear when stopgaps that are doable are not put in place while there are occasions to do so.

Furthermore, appropriate new technologies for safeguarding the distribution process from tripping or sustaining enormous damage that will surely entail costly repair and rebuilding, ought to be acquired or harnessed to their fullest. More often than not, new methods and technologies form part of the set of stop gaps that power service providers must have to have better staying power.

It is possible that Meralco did not have good pro-active measures, a keenness to acquire or harness new technologies and techniques because it sank into the quagmire of debts amounting to staggering amounts like hundreds of millions to billions of US Dollars. As a result, Meralco today, is 51% owned by PLDT that is run by Mr. Manuel V. Pangilinan that in turn is taking orders from Indonesian and Malaysian investors (Salim Group) that holds the bigger stake in PLDT.

The irony is that, both PLDT and Meralco, are engaged in public services that ideally, should never be in the hands of foreigners as much as humanly possible.



Any enterprise in the power sector that will suffer the same fate as that of the Fukushima Power Plant (of Tokyo Electric Power Co.) knowing that pro-active measures could have been taken in advance, would be foolish to absorb losses that could really be avoided in the first place. If the public sector is vigilant, such utility corporations should be stripped of their license and permit to operate electric power distribution services and the opportunity needs to be handed over to more competent and qualified service providers.

A collage of images of damaged power utility facilities alone should give a hint as to the urgency of undertaking advanced planning and early countermeasures, particularly in these times of worsening calamities.

July 15-18, 2014 Philippines

Around the rest of the country and in South China (lowermost photo), the impact of Glenda on installations was staggering. (Photo credits: ANC - Yahoo; AvaxNews - Adrian Ayalin; Philippine Daily Inquirer; Straits Times) 

July 19, 2014



Posted under themes:

damage, installations, Sorsogon, typhoon #Jose, #Halong, power utilities,pro-active measures

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Vital installations down from Glenda, threatened by coming typhoons

It has been forewarned on July 13, 2014 that power utility installations will be among the physical facilities that will sustain the most damage from the tropical storm / typhoon #Rammasun or #Glenda. This kind of phenomenon will keep repeating itself over and over with the advent of more intense weather and climate disturbances in this new millennium.

Shown below is the portrait of damaged power utility facilities inside BF Homes ParaƱaque and Las PiƱas alone:

July 17, 2014

In areas around the rest of the country and in South China (lowermost photo), the impact of Glenda on installations was staggering. (Photo credits: ANC - Yahoo; AvaxNews - Adrian Ayalin; Philippine Daily Inquirer; Straits Times; Xinhua News

July 15-18, 2014
July 19, 2014

Monday, July 14, 2014

A Moment of Quiet Please: Power at Risk

A simple time of silence and attentiveness is needed. For just a little while, stop the desperate fibbing about DAP, PDAF, Destroy Jinggoy-Estrada-Enrile-Binay, et al.

Let's for a brief moment focus on a potential flashpoint. The power situation in Luzon and nearby areas is facing a possible threat from incoming tropical storm Rammasun. With the entry of the storm months, any small or major damage might engender greater numbers of power shortages in Luzon. Earlier, during the previous month, it was reported by Manila Times that the worsening power problems will cause severe crisis over the next two years. (Read the news item here.)

As early as 1990, it was already admonished by the Department of National Defense that the Philippines get into the act of laying the infrastructure for surplus power supply for the next twenty five years (from 1990 up to 2015). This suggestion was not heeded. While the intention of succeeding regime after that of Mrs. Corazon Aquino was possibly noble, the deregulation of the power sector did nothing to cure the problem of extreme shortfall in the national requirement for power.


Photo credit: extremetech.com
Photo credit: imageshack

We cannot overstate the potential impact of incoming Tropical Storm Rammasun (local code name Bagyo Glenda). However, with its path going through areas where above ground power transmission lines can possibly be hit by its now strengthening winds, there is no doubt that a number of circuit suspension towers will topple at the height of the storm.

If Rammasun itself does not completely break down major portions of Central and Southern Luzon's suspension towers and sever a large number of electric transmission lines, forthcoming typhoons and even more minor tropical storms can do the job.

A large number of preventive activities need to be put in place. During the storm it will be absolutely hazardous to keep live power lines intact just to avoid transmission from tripping. The time to undertake pro-active measures is now, before the strong winds come. And following the exit of Rammasun or Glenda, more pro-active measures can then be taken - considering lessons learned from the passage of the storm.

These however must necessitate that serious attention be given to such kind of effort, beyond the present panicked and frenetic, super desperate moves to throw mud at each other between the group of Philippine president Mr. Aquino and his critics, as well as the Philippine Supreme Court that recently outlawed a fund use scheme called Development Acceleration Program.

In most developed, as well as in many developing countries, storm or typhoon buffers are installed to protect and safeguard farms and other agriculture livelihood centers.

Such storm buffers do not prevent total destruction of crops but these greatly minimize the losses from the havoc wreaked by the calamity.

For keeping as many power transmission lines and suspension towers safe, such buffers can be installed even for short-term purposes. In this case, prior to the landfall of Rammasun (Glenda), some safety measures can be installed. At the very least, lesser damage can be expected from the storm in case Rammasun (Glenda) will develop fast into a super typhoon.

As of this time, while there are a large number of power plant operations in Luzon are bogged down, if a substantial portion of the grid will suffer damage, the potential for burgeoning power outages will be great.

Rammasun is expected to hit the Philippine area of responsibility in the next 48 hours. For the love of God, stop bickering just for a short while and do something about this problem. If the Philippine government fails to listen to suggestions that could increase chances of preventing critical power outages in Luzon, then it must be the most inutile regime this country ever had in the entire history of this nation.

Photo credit: US NOAA
Photo credits: weather.com
Photo credit: Accuweather
Update 1 Video Credit: westernpacificweather.com
Update 2 Photo - Video Credit: westernpacificweather.com

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Saturday, July 5, 2014

Need for a Master Plan for Metro Manila

Congressman Jose Atienza pushes for a Master Plan for the National Capital Region.

We would like to thank Rep. Atienza for pointing this out. On the other hand, there is also a need for a master plan for managing any kind of disaster that will hit Metro Manila. From our honest assessment, there is really none.

Early this year, my uncle Nick Fernandez and myself had an audience with Chairman Francis Tolentino of the Metro Manila Development Authority.

We were told by Chairman Tolentino that he and an Australian group now had a disaster map of Metro Manila that cost a few million pesos. It shows the many hazards and risks that Metro Manilans are exposed to. Chairman Tolentino stressed that he and his Australian counterparts are ready to post the disaster map over the internet. Most politely it was told to the Honorable Chairman that the need is really for a truly interactive map that will benefit the people of Metro Manila when it comes to the issue of forewarning during disaster. Such a map will certainly require a really big budget - as I have found out during the entire advocacy for safety and disaster prepared since 1990.

In the World Bank Study of 1996/7 up to 1999 alone, more than United States Dollars Two Millions (USD2,000,000) was spent on mapping only the earthquake fault emanating from the Marikina West and East Valley area.  How much would have been spent at today's costs (nearly twenty years later), if all the environmental hazards are figured into the final geohazard map for Metro Manila?


US Dollars Twenty Millions (USD20,000,000) will not nearly be enough. Read More from here